《Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks（智库双螺旋法理论）》深刻把握智库科学化发展的总体趋势，总结智库研究的共性特征和存在的突出问题，从外循环、内循环、“十个关键问题”和方法集工具箱四个层次构建智库双螺旋法理论体系，重点围绕智库问题的解析、智库问题牵引下的情景分析、智库问题研究的不确定性分析、智库问题研究的政策模拟分析、智库研究的循环迭代、DIIS与MIPS的耦合关系、智库研究的专家组织与管理、人机结合的智库问题研究支持系统、客观分析与主观判断的结合、智库产品质量管理等方面展开文理融合、理实融通的论述，标志着智库理论研究已从智库研究范式走向智库理论方法并正在走向智库科学体系。

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山东大学数学系，运筹学理学学士学位。 香港中文大学工学院计算机科学与工程学系，哲学硕士学位。 清华大学MBA硕士课程高级研修班。中国科学院战略院院长参加中科院知识创新工程“创新2020”“率先行动计划”规划和重大改革举措的研究制定和实施。2020-01-09—今,上海科技大学, 特聘教授 2018-12-30—今,国家科技评估标准化技术委员会, 副主任委员 2018-03-22—今,中国科技评估与成果管理研究会, 副理事长 2016-09-29—今,中国科技技术法学会, 副会长 2013-12-24—今,中国发展战略学研究会, 理事长

Contents
Preface
Part Ⅰ An Overview of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 1 Connotation and Development of Think Tanks 3
1.1 Connotation and Functions of Think Tanks 3
1.2 Construction and Development of Think Tanks 7
1.3 Practice of High-end Think Tank Construction in China and the Future Development 14
References 18
Chapter 2 Theory Structure of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 20
2.1 Main Content of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 20
2.2 Ten Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 35
2.3 Four-layered Model of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 54
2.4 Summary 66
References 67
Chapter 3 Theoretical Value and Significance of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 69
3.1 Promoting the Six Transitions in Think Tank Research 69
3.2 Building an Academic Foundation for Think Tank Research 82
3.3 Providing Input and Directions for the Construction of the Think Tank Discipline 113
3.4 Summary 117
References 118
Part Ⅱ The Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 4 Decomposition of Think Tank Problems 121
4.1 Defining the Problem 122
4.2 Describing the Problem 125
4.3 Constructing the Framework 127
4.4 Formation of the Sub-problem Set 130
4.5 Case Study 132
4.6 Summary 136
References 137
Chapter 5 Scenario Analysis of Think Tank Problems 139
5.1 The Importance of Scenario Analysis in the Study of Think Tank Issues 139
5.2 The Role of Scenario Analysis in Think Tank Research 142
5.3 Key Elements of Scenario Analysis and Its Methods 143
5.4 Processes of Scenario Analysis and Its Functions in the DIIS Framework 147
5.5 The Role of Scenario Analysis in the Realization of MIPS Objectives 152
5.6 Summary 158
References 159
Chapter 6 Uncertainty Analysis in Think Tank Problem Study 161
6.1 The Connotation of Uncertainty 162
6.2 Uncertainty in Think Tank Problems and the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 164
6.3 Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Think Tank Problems 167
6.4 Summary 172
References 173
Chapter 7 Policy Simulation Analysis in Think Tank Problem Research 175
7.1 Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 175
7.2 Advances in Policy Simulation for Problem Research in Think Tanks at Home and Abroad 178
7.3 Decomposition of Policy Simulation Process on the Basis of the DIIS Process Convergence Method and the MIPS Logic Layer Method 183
7.4 Representative Methods of Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 197
7.5 Summary 201
References 203
Chapter 8 Cyclic Iteration of Think Tank Research 204
8.1 Overview of the Cyclic Iteration in Think Tank Research 204
8.2 Triggering Situations and Stages Involved in the Cyclic Iteration of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 209
8.3 Cyclic Iteration Process of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 216
8.4 Case Study 230
8.5 Summary 232
References 232
Chapter 9 DIIS and MIPS Coupling 234
9.1 Characteristics of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 235
9.2 Structure of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 237
9.3 DIIS-MIPS Coupling in Research Practice 245
9.4 Summary 249
References 249
Chapter 10 Organization and Management of Think Tank Experts 250
10.1 The Role of Think Tank Experts in Think Tank Research 251
10.2 Expert Functions and Knowledge Characteristics 254
10.3 Expert Selection 257
10.4 Expert Participation 260
10.5 Summary 266
References 267
Chapter 11 Human-machine Research Support System in Think Tank Research 268
11.1 Necessity for the Construction of Decision Support System in Think Tanks 268
11.2 Main Types of Decision Support Systems in Think Tanks 272
11.3 Research Hotspots of Think Tank Decision Support Systems 276
11.4 Architecture of the Decision Support System in the Framework of Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 278
11.5 Summary 292
References 292
Chapter 12 Combination of Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 293
12.1 The Significance of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 294
12.2 Concept of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 295
12.3 Principles， Criteria and Methods of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 300
12.4 The Application of Combined Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 303
12.5 The Progress of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment in Different Domain Perspectives 309
12.6 Summary 312
References 313
Chapter 13 Product Quality Management 315
13.1 Characteristics and Classification of Think Tank Products 315
13.2 Quality Requirements for Think Tank Products 320
13.3 Quality Management of Think Tank Products 329
13.4 Summary 333
References 334