本书在对我国粮食供需格局变化进行分析研判的基础上，深入探讨了高水平开放对我国粮食供需格局及粮食安全的影响与挑战，构建了高水平开放格局下把贸易影响内化纳入我国粮食供需格局的“三元平衡”分析框架，系统研究了面对进口外部竞争、国际规则约束、复杂国际环境等非传统粮食安全挑战，通过优化粮食支持保护政策体系、升级粮食进口风险防控体系、积极参与打造全球粮农治理新体系等多种途径来提升我国“两个市场、两种资源”的统筹利用效能，探索立足国内、放眼国际、合作共赢来构建更高层次、更高质量的开放型国家粮食安全战略的顶层设计思路和具体行动方案。

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2001.02—2002.02 博士后，美国国际食物政策研究所（International Food Policy Research Institute，IFPRI）； 1995.09--2000.12 博士，南京农业大学经济管理学院（硕博连读）； 1987.08--1991.06 学士，南京国际关系学院英语系。2023.12-至今 南京农业大学钟山首席教授、校学术委员会副主任委员 2019年9月-至今 南京农业大学钟山首席教授 2014.1-2022.06 南京农业大学经济管理学院院长 2013.12-至今 教育部长江学者特聘教授 2010.12-2013.12 南京农业大学经济管理学院副院长 2008.7-2009.2 美国加州大学戴维斯分校（UC Davis）高级访问学者 2006.12-2010.12 南京农业大学经济管理学院贸易经济系副主任、教授、博导、国际贸易学科点长 2005.4-2006.1 南京农业大学经济管理学院教授（破格晋升）； 2002.2-2005.4 南京农业大学经济管理学院副教授； 2001.2-2002.2 美国国际食物政策研究所（IFPRI）博士后研究员； 1991.7-2001.2 南京农业大学经济管理学院助教、讲师1. "研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神"国家社科基金重大项目，健全对外开放下的国家粮食安全保障体系研究，中国农业经济学会副会长； 中国农村发展学会第八届理事会副会长； 中国国外农业经济研究会第八届理事会副会长； 江苏省经济学会第八届理事会副会长； 国际农业研究磋商组织（CGIAR）国际畜牧研究所（ILRI）董事局董事

目录
开篇 审时度势 研判粮食安全新挑战
第1章 绪论
1.1 研究背景与意义/003
1.2 国内外研究现状/011
1.3 研究目标、分析框架及可能的创新/023
第2章 我国粮食供求变化与高水平开放下粮食安全新格局
2.1 消费端：提档升级且峰值未至/034
2.2 生产端：能力提升但压力加大/044
2.3 贸易端：重要性上升且引入新风险/056
2.4 高水平开放下粮食安全新格局/067
2.5 本章小结/077
第3章 高水平开放格局下的粮食安全新挑战
3.1 我国农业对外开放阶段与特征/079
3.2 高水平开放给我国粮食安全带来新挑战/085
012 健全高水平开放下粮食安全保障体系研究
3.3 新挑战下亟须树立粮食安全新思维/094
3.4 高水平开放格局下完善我国粮食安全保障体系/099
3.5 本章小结/111
上篇 立足国内 优化粮食支持保护政策体系
第4章 我国粮食支持保护政策演进与新时期转型需求
4.1 我国粮食支持保护政策的演进历程/115
4.2 我国粮食支持保护政策主要工具的实施及效果/123
4.3 高水平开放下我国粮食支持保护政策的转型压力与调整思路/146
4.4 本章小结/150
第5章 中美农业国内支持争端与我国主粮价格支持政策的合规性压力
5.1 WTO 关于市场价格支持补贴的相关规则/153
5.2 我国主粮价格支持政策的合规性压力：DS511 案及其影响/157
5.3 国际规则约束下我国主粮价格支持政策的调整及可能的优化策略/168
5.4 本章小结/173
第6章 WTO框架下我国主粮农业保险政策的国际规则适应性
6.1 WTO关于农业保险补贴政策的相关规则/176
6.2 我国农业保险政策与国际规则的适应性： 基于试点方案的分析/188
6.3 国际规则约束下我国主粮保险补贴政策的调整及可能优化策略/206
6.4 本章小结/210
第7章 我国粮食价格支持政策转型方案与影响模拟
7.1 粮食价格支持政策调整的实践探索与潜在挑战/213
7.2 政策转型的模拟方案设定与评估方法/218
7.3 政策转型可能方案的影响模拟/229
7.4 本章小结/236
第8章 粮食支持保护政策转型的国际经验及在我国的适用性分析
8.1 欧盟：多重目标兼顾的政策体系/239
8.2 美国：全面风险管控的政策体系/256
8.3 日本：保障粮食自给力的政策体系/267
8.4 国际粮食支持保护政策转型经验在我国的适用性分析/283
8.5 本章小结/295
中篇 放眼国际 强化粮食进口风险防控体系
第9章 我国粮食进口新格局与外部风险防范需求分析
9.1 全球粮食市场变化与我国粮食进口新格局/300
9.2 新格局下我国粮食进口面临的外部风险/313
9.3 防范粮食进口外部风险的思路与方向/321
014 健全高水平开放下粮食安全保障体系研究
9.4 本章小结/324
第10章 外部风险对我国粮食安全的影响：以中美经贸摩擦为例
10.1 中美贸易关系演变及农产品贸易依存度/327
10.2 中美经贸摩擦及其对我国农产品进口影响的典型事实/332
10.3 中美经贸摩擦对我国粮食安全影响的量化评估/346
10.4 本章小结/362
第11章 外部风险对我国粮食安全的影响：以俄乌冲突为例
11.1 俄乌两国对全球及我国粮食贸易的重要性分析/365
11.2 俄乌冲突对全球及我国粮食安全影响的基本研判/370
11.3 出口限制视角下俄乌冲突对我国粮食进口的潜在影响评估/385
11.4 本章小结/392
第12章 相互依赖视角下粮食进口来源多元化的思路与策略
12.1 市场供需主体相互依赖与进口来源地布局/395
12.2 优化重点品种来源地布局的可行性分析/399
12.3 相互依赖视角下我国粮食进口来源地布局优化：
以大豆为例/403
12.4 本章小结/420
第13章 产品替代视角下食物进口种类多元化的思路与策略
13.1 多元化食物进口格局与粮食安全保障能力提升/423
13.2 优化多元食物进口品种结构的可行性分析/429
13.3 多元化食物进口对粮食安全的潜在影响评估：以扩大肉类进口为例/445
13.4 构建多元化食物进口格局防范外部风险的对策建议/460
13.5 本章小结/463
下篇 合作共赢 推动构建全球粮农治理新体系
第14章 农业贸易治理体系与全球粮食安全：转型压力与改革需求
14.1 全球农业贸易治理体系与粮食安全/468
14.2 全球农业贸易治理体系面临的失序困境/473
14.3 粮食安全风险与全球农业贸易治理体系改革需求/481
14.4 本章小结/489
第15章 WTO农业谈判中粮食安全公共储备议题的演进、争议与前景
15.1 WTO农业谈判中粮食安全问题的演进历程/491
15.2 粮食安全公共储备巴厘决议的成果及其局限性/504
15.3 粮食安全公共储备永久性解决方案所面临的挑战/511
15.4 粮食安全公共储备议题的谈判前景展望/519
15.5 本章小结/523
016 健全高水平开放下粮食安全保障体系研究
第16章 WTO农业国内支持规则谈判利益分歧与改革动向
16.1 农业国内支持规则改革主要分歧和关键诉求/525
16.2 凯恩斯集团最新改革主张及其影响分析/531
16.3 凯恩斯集团提案存在的问题及发展中成员主张/548
16.4 WTO农业国内支持改革方向与路径/559
16.5 本章小结/562
第17章 农产品出口限制规则的争议问题与改革思路
17.1 全球农产品出口限制措施的特征及影响/565
17.2 WTO农产品出口限制规则及其争议问题/573
17.3 WTO农产品出口限制规则的谈判进展及改革思路/579
17.4 本章小结/589
第18章 新格局下中国参与全球粮食安全治理体系的角色定位与发展构想
18.1 百年变局下全球粮食安全面临的重大挑战/592
18.2 全球粮食安全治理的中国实践与发展转型/597
18.3 中国深度参与全球粮食安全治理的角色定位与
未来展望/610
18.4 本章小结/616
参考文献/617
索引/659
CONTENTS
PROLOGUE: ASSESSING THE SITUATION: IDENTIFYING
NEW CHALLENGES TO FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background and Research Significance/003
1.2 Overview of Domestic and International Researches/011
1.3 Research Objectives, Analytical Frameworks and Possible Innovations/023
CHAPTER 2 CHANGING DYNAMICS IN CHINA’S FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND THE NEW ANDSCAPE OF FOOD SECURITY IN THE ERA OF HIGH-LEVEL GLOBALIZATION
2.1 Consumption: Upgrading and Continuous Growth/034
2.2 Production: Enhanced Capability with Mounting Pressure/044
2.3 Trade: Rising Importance and Emerging Risks/056
2.4 New Food Security Landscape in the Era of High-Level Globalization/067
2.5 Summary/077
CHAPTER 3 NEW CHALLENGES TO CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY IN THE ERA OF HIGH-LEVEL GLOBALIZATION
3.1 Phases and Characteristics of China’s Agricultural Opening-up/079
3.2 Emerging Challenges to China’s Food Security in the Era of High-Level Globalization/085
3.3 The Need for New Food Security Strategy amidst New Challenges/094
3.4 Strengthening China’s Food Security System in the Era of High-Level Globalization/099
3.5 Summary/111
PART I: ON DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: OPTIMIZING CHINA ’S FOOD PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICY SY STEM
CHAPTER 4 EVOLUTION OF CHINA’S PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICIES FOR STAPLE FOODS AND TRANSFORMATION REQUIREMENTS IN NEW ERA
4.1 Historical Evolution of China’s Production Support Policies for Staple Foods/115
4.2 Implementation and Impact of China’s Major Production Support Policy Measures for Staple Foods/123
4.3 Transformation Pressure and Adaptation Strategies for China’s Food Production Support Policies in the Era of High-Level Globalization/146
4.4 Summary/150
CHAPTER 5 CHINA-US AGRICULTURAL DOMESTIC SUPPORT DISPUTES AND COMPLIANCE PRESSURE ON CHINA’S STAPLE FOOD PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES
5.1 WTO Rules on Market Price Support Subsidies/153
5.2 Compliance Pressure on China’s Staple Food Price Support Policies: The DS511 Case and Its Implications/157
5.3 Adjustment and Optimization Strategies for China’s Staple Food Price Support Policies under WTO Rules/168
5.4 Summary/173
CHAPTER 6 ADAPTABILITY OF CHINA’S AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE POLICIES FOR STAPLE FOODS UNDER WTO RULES
6.1 WTO Rules on Agricultural Insurance Subsidy Policies/176
6.2 Adaptability of China’s Agricultural Insurance Policies under WTO Rules:Analysis of A Pilot Program/188
6.3 Adjustment and Optimization Strategies for China’s Staple Food Insurance Subsidy Policies under International Rules/206
6.4 Summary/210
CHAPTER 7 TRANSFORMATION PLANS AND IMPACT SIMULATIONS OF CHINA’S FOOD PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES
7.1 Exploratory Practices and Potential Challenges in Transforming Staple Food Price Support Policies/213
7.2 Modeling and Evaluation Methods for Policy Transition/218
7.3 Impact Simulations of Alternative Policy Transition Plans/229
7.4 Summary/236
CHAPTER 8 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES IN TRANSFORMING FOOD PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICIES AND APPLICABILITY TO CHINA
8.1 The EU: The Policy System Incorporating Multiple Objectives/239
8.2 The U.S.: The Policy System with Comprehensive Risk Management/256
8.3 Japan: The Policy System Ensuring Food Self-Supply Capacity/267
8.4 Applicability of International Experiences to China’s Transformation of Food Production Support Policies/283
8.5 Summary/295
PART II: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: STRENGTHENING RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR CHINA’S FOOD IMPORTS CHAPTER 9 CHINA’S EVOLVING FOOD IMPORT LANDSCAPE AND THE NEED FOR EXTERNAL RISK MANAGEMENT
9.1 Global Food Market Dynamics and New Landscape of China’s Food Imports/300
9.2 External Risks to China’s Food Imports in the New Era/313
9.3 Strategies and Directions for Managing External Risks to China’s Food Imports/321
9.4 Summary/324
CHAPTER 10 IMPACT OF EXTERNAL RISKS ON CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF THE SINO-US TRADE FRICTIONS
10.1 Evolution of Sino-US Trade Relations and Agricultural Trade Dependence/327
10.2 Stylized Facts on the Sino-US Trade Disputes and Impact on China’s Agricultural Imports/332
10.3 Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Frictions on China’s Food Security/346
10.4 Summary/362
CHAPTER 11 IMPACT OF EXTERNAL RISKS ON CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
11.1 Significance of Russia and Ukraine in Global and China’s Food Trade/365
11.2 Primary Assessment of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global and China’s Food Security/370
11.3 Evaluating the Potential Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on China’s Food Imports from the Perspective of Export Restrictions/385
11.4 Summary/392
CHAPTER 12 CHINA’S FOOD IMPORT SOURCE DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF TRADE INTERDEPENDENCE
12.1 Supply-Demand Interdependence and Geographic Allocation of Import Sources/395
12.2 Feasibility Analysis of Optimizing Import Sources of Critical Food Products/399
12.3 Geography Optimization of Import Sources for China’s Food Import from the Perspective of Trade Interdependence: A Case Study of Soybeans/403
12.4 Summary/420
CHAPTER 13 STRATEGIES FOR DIVERSIFYING CHINA’S FOOD IMPORT VARIETIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PRODUCT SUBSTITUTION
13.1 Food Import Diversification and Its Role in Strengthening Food Security/423
13.2 Feasibility Analysis of Optimizing Food Imports by Variety Patterns/429
13.3 Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Import Diversification on China’s Food Security: A Case Study of Expanding Meat Imports/445
13.4 Policy Recommendations for Building a Diversified Food Import Framework for External Risks Management/460
13.5 Summary/463
PART III: WIN-WIN COOPERATION: ADVANCING TOWARD A NEW GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL GOVERNANCE SYSTEM
CHAPTER 14 AGRICULTURAL TRADE GOVERNANCE SYSTEM AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY: TRANSFORMATION PRESSURE AND REFORM NEEDS
14.1 Global Agricultural Trade Governance System and Food Security/468
14.2 Disorder and Challenges Facing the Global Agricultural Trade Governance System/473
14.3 Food Security Risks and the Need for Reforming Global Agricultural Trade Governance System/481
14.4 Summary/489
CHAPTER 15 EVOLUTION, CONTROVERSIES, AND PROSPECTS OF PUBLIC STOCKHOLDING PROGRAMS FOR FOOD SECURITY IN WTO AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATIONS
15.1 Evolution Phases of Food Security Issues in WTO Agricultural Negotiations/491
15.2 Achievements and Limitations of the Bali Decision on Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/504
15.3 Challenges to Permanent Solutions for Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/511
15.4 Prospects for Negotiations on Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/519
15.5 Summary/523
CHAPTER 16 DIVERGING INTERESTS AND REFORM TRENDS IN WTONEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURAL DOMESTIC SUPPORT RULES
16.1 Key Disputes and Reform Priorities Relating to WTO Agricultural Domestic Support Rules/525
16.2 Analysis of Recent Reform Proposals by the Cairns Group and Potential Implications/531
16.3 Inherent Problems in the Cairns’ Proposals and Propositions from the Perspective of Developing Nations/548
16.4 Future Directions and Pathways for Reforming WTO Rules on Agricultural Domestic Support/559
16.5 Summary/562
CHAPTER 17 CONTROVERSIES AND REFORM APPROACHES IN AGRICULTURAL EXPORT RESTRICTION RULES
17.1 Characteristics of Global Agricultural Export Restrictions and Trade Impacts/565
17.2 WTO Rules on Agricultural Export Restrictions and Inherent Controversies/573
17.3 WTO Negotiation Progress and Reform Strategies on Agricultural Export Restrictions Rules/579
17.4 Summary/589
CHAPTER 18 CHINA’S POSITIONING AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN THE NEW ERA
18.1 Major Challenges to Global Food Security in the Context of Profound Changes Unseen in A Century/592
18.2 China’s Practices and Strategy Transformation in Global Food Security Governance/597
18.3 China’s Strategic Role and Future Prospects for In-Depth Engagement in Global Food Security Governance/610
18.4 Summary/616
REFERENCES/617
INDEX/659