博鳌亚洲论坛新兴经济体发展2018年度报告

TheBoaoForumforAsia,anon-governmentalandnon-profitinternationalorganizationwithafixedconferencedateandafixeddomicile,hasbecomeanimportantandhigh-profileplatformfordialoguesonAsianandglobalissuesforgovernment,industrialandcommercialaswellasacademicleadersinAsiaandothercontinents.Itaimstopromoteeconomicexchanges,coordinationandcooperationamongeconomieswithinAsiaandbetweenAsiaandothercontinents.ToexpandtheexternalexchangechannelsoftheAsianeconomiesandestablishwidercross-regionallinks,theforumiscommittedtopushingdevelopmentof,andcooperationamong,theworld’semerging-marketeconomies.Theforumhasstartedtoorganizethecompilationoftheannualdevelopmentreportfortheemerging-marketeconomiessince2010.
　　In2010,theforumforthefirsttimedefinedtheterm“E11”(11majoremerging-marketeconomies)initsannualdevelopmentreport.The2018reportcontinuestofocusonstudyoftheE11and,inparticular,analyzestheirnewdevelopmentsineconomicgrowth,employmentandincome,priceandmonetarypolicy,internationaltrade,internationaldirectinvestment,internationalcommodities,anddebtandfinancialmarkets.ItalsoanticipatestheeconomicsituationoftheE11in2018.
　　Benefitingfromadrasticriseinexternaldemandandgenerallystabledomesticconsumptiondemand,theeconomicgrowthoftheemergingeconomiesobviouslyacceleratedandgenerallymaintainedanupwardmomentumin2017.TheE11sawaGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)growthofabout5.1%in2017,oranincreaseof0.5percentagepointsyear-on-year,which,1.4percentagepointshigherthantheworld’saverageeconomicgrowth,madetheE11continuouslytaketheleadamongtheemerging-marketanddevelopingeconomies.Atthelargestemergingeconomy,Chinakeptamiddle-higheconomicgrowthof6.9%in2017,contributingapproximatelyone-thirdtoglobaleconomicgrowthandcontinuouslyactingasthelargestcontributortoglobaleconomy.RussiaandBrazilpulledthemselvesoutofalingeringeconomicrecessionandtheireconomicgrowthturnedfromnegativetopositive.Over2017,thejobmarketsoftheemergingeconomieshavegenerallykeptstable,withtheirinflationpressureseasedtosomeextent,internationaltradevigorouslyreboundedandthefinancialmarketsgenerallystable,buttheirdebtlevelshavekeptsoaringandinternationaltradegrowthremainedfeeble.
　　Atthesametime,theeconomiccooperationamongtheemergingeconomieshasachievedremarkableprogresses.Intermsofinternalcooperation,thedecliningproportionoftheE11’sinternaltradetoitstotalforeigntradehasbeencheckedandtheproportionin2017alreadyexceededthatof2015.MutualdirectinvestmentwithintheE11hasseensteadygrowth.Intermsofforeigncooperation,theE11’stradehaslongremainedrelativelyhighlydependentonthedevelopedeconomies,butduetogoodeconomicrecoveryoftheemerging-marketanddevelopingeconomies,theproportionofthedevelopedeconomiestotheE11’stradesawadeclinein2017.Inthecontextofanexacerbatedinward-lookingapproachoftheUSandotherdevelopedeconomies,theE11hasmadeslowprogressesintradeandinvestmenttalkswiththedevelopedeconomies.
　　Currently,theeconomicgrowthoftheemergingeconomiesrepresentedbytheE11takesonagoodmomentum.However,theinfluencesofthosefactorsthataffecttheirlaborproductivity,technologicalprogress,youthunemployment,balancedincomedistribution,economicglobalizationandregionalintegration,andpublicandprivatedebt,aswellasthegrowingfinancialbubblesandthespillovereffectbroughtaboutbyUSPresidentDonaldTrump’staxreformoftheireconomicgrowthstillcannotbeignored.Inthemeantime,whethertheirexternaldemandcanmaintaincontinuousgrowthandthedynamismoftheirinvestmentgrowthcanbere-forgedremainsyettobeseen.
　　Lookingintotheyearof2018,theemergingeconomiesareexpectedtocontinuouslymaintainagoodgrowthmomentum,buttheystillneedtotakeprecautionarymeasuresagainstvariousrisksandchallenges,anddigoutanendogenousgrowthpowertolayasolidfoundationforlong-termandsteadyeconomicgrowth.

Preface IX
Chapter 1　Overview 1
1.1　Overall Situation in 2017 1
1.2　Outlook in 2018 5
Chapter 2　Economic Growth 9
2.1　An Obvious Rise in Economic Growth Speed 9
2.2　Rising Contribution of Net Export to Economic Growth 15
2.3　Possible Continuation of Positive Growth Momentum 18
Chapter 3　Employment and Income 23
3.1　Unemployment on the Rise in Most E11 Countries 23
3.2　Income Decreases but Distribution Improves 30
Chapter 4　Prices and Monetary Policy 35
4.1　Inflation Well under Control 35
4.2　Limited Space for Monetary Policy Adjustment 38
Chapter 5　International Trade 43
5.1　Robust and More Balanced Trade Growth 43
5.2　Still-alarming Trade Protectionism 49
5.3　A New Trend of Trade Cooperation 52
Chapter 6  International Direct Investment 61
6.1　Feeble and Obviously Differentiated DFI Growth 61
6.2　Continuous Improvement of Overall Investment Environment 67
Chapter 7  Commodity Markets 73
7.1　Remarkable Recovery of Energy Product Prices 73
7.2　Metal Prices Would Continue to Rise 78
7.3　Prices of Precious Metals Largely Stable 79
7.4　Prices of Fertilizers Dropped 80
7.5　Prices of Most Agricultural Products Were Stable 81
7.6　Major Impact of International Bulk Commodities Prices on E11 82
Chapter 8  Debt 85
8.1　Risks of Public Debt Being Controllable 85
8.2　Risks of Private Debt Lowering 89
8.3　Foreign Debt Risk Increasing 92
Chapter 9  Financial Market 97
9.1　Currency Depreciation Pressure Lessened 97
9.2　Treasury Yields Rose Moderately 100
9.3　Exceptional Stock Market Performance 102
9.4　Real Estate Price Volatility Eased 103
9.5　Financial Market Prospects 106
References 108
Acknowledgements 110