本书分五部分，共32 章。第一部分为综述篇，介绍了商用飞机发展现状与需求分析，探讨了商用飞机产品与技术的总体创新趋势。第二部分为产品创新篇，分别描述了未来支线飞机、未来窄体客机、未来宽体客机、超声速客机、高超声速客机、商用货运飞机和城市飞行器共七种类型商用飞机产品的发展概况、需求分析、国内外研发进展、潜在方案与指标、关键技术清单和发展路线图。第三部分为技术提升篇，介绍了商用飞机相关技术发展与提升的方向，国内外技术发展以及技术发展路线图。第四部分为技术融合篇，介绍了和商用飞机有关的系列交叉前沿技术，包括5G 技术、人工智能、数字孪生、VR/AR/MR 技术、区块链、石墨烯、超导技术、量子计算技术、航空仿生技术、脑机接口等。第五部分为展望篇，展望未来商用飞机产品与技术的发展方向。

中国商飞北京民用飞机技术研究中心（简称“北研中心”），是2010年3月29日由中国商用飞机有限责任公司（简称“商飞公司”）出资，经中央编制委员会办公室批准成立的科研事业单位。北研中心是商飞公司面向未来开展商用大飞机预先研究的专业机构，是商飞公司重点建设的高层次人才创新创业基地，是绿色飞机原创技术策源地，发挥技术研发和市场需求“喇叭口”作用，着力开展未来商用大飞机的研究与论证，并推进研究成果快速向型号转化。北研中心科研领域涵盖未来商用大飞机技术总体论证、飞行物理与数字仿真、先进结构集成、先进系统集成、新能源动力、增材制造、人工智能、新技术探索应用等研究领域。

第1 篇 综述
第1 章 商用飞机发展现状与需求分析···························································.2
1.1 全球航空运输总体情况····································································.3
1.1.1 全球航空运输发展现状····························································.3
1.1.2 未来民用飞机市场发展需求······················································.3
1.2 全球商用飞机产业发展情况分析························································.5
1.2.1 主制造商发展情况··································································.5
1.2.2 供应商发展情况·····································································.6
1.3 政府部门、监管机构标准和要求分析··················································.9
1.4 国外民用飞机发展规划和科技创新分析·············································.10
第2 章 商用飞机创新趋势········································································.14
2.1 商用飞机创新发展驱动力·······························································.15
2.2 未来产品创新趋势········································································.16
2.2.1 支线飞机创新趋势································································.16
2.2.2 干线飞机创新趋势································································.17
2.2.3 超声速飞机创新趋势·····························································.17
2.2.4 货机创新趋势······································································.18
2.3 未来技术创新趋势········································································.18
2.3.1 新能源技术创新趋势·····························································.19
2.3.2 新构型技术创新趋势·····························································.20
2.3.3 新材料、新工艺、新结构技术创新趋势·····································.21
2.3.4 智能化技术创新趋势·····························································.21
第2 篇 产品创新
第3 章 未来支线客机··············································································.23
3.1 发展概况····················································································.23
3.1.1 支线飞机市场现状································································.23
3.1.2 未来发展趋势······································································.24
3.2 需求分析····················································································.24
3.2.1 市场需求分析······································································.24
3.2.2 产品需求分析······································································.26
3.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.26
3.3.1 现有支线飞机情况································································.26
3.3.2 前沿概念方案······································································.27
3.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.29
3.4.1 潜在方案A：支撑翼混合电推进支线飞机··································.29
3.4.2 潜在方案B：分布式混合电推进支线飞机··································.30
3.4.3 潜在方案C：氢能支线飞机····················································.30
3.5 关键技术清单··············································································.30
3.6 发展路线图·················································································.31
参考文献···························································································.32
第4章 未来窄体客机··············································································.33
4.1 发展概况····················································································.34
4.2 需求分析····················································································.34
4.2.1 市场需求分析······································································.34
4.2.2 性能需求分析······································································.36
4.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.36
4.3.1 现有窄体飞机情况································································.36
4.3.2 前沿概念方案······································································.37
4.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.41
4.4.1 潜在方案A：支撑翼/混合电推进窄体飞机·································.41
4.4.2 潜在方案B：氢能窄体飞机····················································.42
4.4.3 潜在方案C：BWB 新能源飞机················································.43
4.5 关键技术清单··············································································.44
4.6 发展路线图·················································································.45
参考文献···························································································.46
第5 章 未来宽体客机··············································································.47
5.1 发展概况····················································································.48
5.2 需求分析····················································································.48
5.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.49
5.3.1 现有宽体飞机情况································································.49
5.3.2 前沿概念方案······································································.50
5.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.52
5.4.1 潜在方案A：中远程宽体飞机·················································.52
5.4.2 潜在方案B：远程洲际宽体飞机··············································.52
5.4.3 潜在方案C：氢能宽体飞机····················································.53
5.4.4 潜在方案D：BWB 传统能源飞机············································.54
5.5 关键技术清单··············································································.55
5.6 发展路线图·················································································.56
参考文献···························································································.57
第6 章 超声速客机·················································································.58
6.1 发展概况····················································································.58
6.1.1 产品发展历程······································································.59
6.1.2 产品发展趋势······································································.61
6.2 需求分析····················································································.62
6.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.64
6.3.1 NASA X-59 低声爆超声速验证机·············································.64
6.3.2 美国博姆公司超声速客机·······················································.65
6.3.3 俄罗斯超声速客机································································.65
6.3.4 国内超声速客机研究工作·······················································.65
6.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.67
6.5 关键技术清单··············································································.68
6.5.1 总体气动············································································.68
6.5.2 结构材料············································································.69
6.5.3 航电/飞控···········································································.69
6.6 发展路线图·················································································.69
参考文献···························································································.70
第7 章 高超声速客机··············································································.72
7.1 发展概况····················································································.72
7.2 需求分析····················································································.73
7.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.73
7.3.1 英国“云霄塔”项目·····························································.74
7.3.2 美国NASA 的X 系列飞行器···················································.75
7.3.3 波音公司的高超声速客机项目·················································.76
7.3.4 赫尔墨斯公司的高超声速客机项目···········································.76
7.3.5 凌空天行的高超声速飞行器····················································.77
7.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.78
7.5 关键技术清单··············································································.78
7.6 发展路线图·················································································.80
参考文献···························································································.80
第8 章 商用货机····················································································.82
8.1 发展概况····················································································.82
8.2 需求分析····················································································.84
8.2.1 市场需求分析······································································.84
8.2.2 性能需求············································································.84
8.3 国内外研发进展···········································································.85
8.3.1 现有商用货机情况································································.85
8.3.2 前沿概念方案······································································.89
8.4 潜在方案与特点···········································································.92
8.4.1 设计方案与特点···································································.93
8.4.2 发展策略············································································.95
8.5 关键技术清单··············································································.95
8.6 发展路线图·················································································.97
参考文献···························································································.99
第9 章 城市飞行器···············································································.100
9.1 发展概况···················································································.100
9.2 需求分析···················································································.101
9.2.1 市场需求分析·····································································.101
9.2.2 产品需求分析·····································································.102
9.3 国内外研发进展··········································································.103
9.3.1 传统航空器制造商的研发进展················································.103
9.3.2 初创城市飞行器制造商的研发进度··········································.104
9.3.3 汽车制造商和出行服务提供商················································.106
9.4 潜在方案与特点··········································································.107
9.5 关键技术清单·············································································.108
9.5.1 先进气动布局设计技术·························································.109
9.5.2 信息控制综合技术·······························································.110
9.5.3 能源动力系统技术·······························································.110
9.6 发展路线图················································································.111
参考文献··························································································.112
第3 篇 技术提升
第10 章 先进气动技术·············································································114
10.1 国内外发展概况········································································.114
10.2 非常规气动布局设计技术····························································.115
10.3 变弯度机翼减阻技术··································································.116
10.4 层流减阻技术···········································································.117
10.5 表面微肋条湍流减阻技术····························································.119
10.6 降噪技术·················································································.120
10.7 风洞试验验证···········································································.121
10.8 CFD 技术·················································································.122
10.9 发展路线图··············································································.123
参考文献··························································································.123
第11 章 先进航空材料与结构··································································.127
11.1 国内外发展概况·········································································.127
11.2 高性能复合材料·········································································.128
11.3 铝钪合金材料············································································.129
11.4 民用飞机折叠翼梢技术································································.130
11.5 非圆截面机体结构设计技术··························································.131
11.6 结构功能一体化防除冰技术··························································.133
11.7 多功能机身结构设计技术·····························································.134
11.8 结构健康监测技术······································································.135
11.9 飞机结构数字孪生技术································································.137
11.10 发展路线图·············································································.138
参考文献··························································································.139
第12 章 先进航电技术···········································································.141
12.1 国内外发展概况········································································.141
12.2 航电系统设计与集成··································································.143
12.3 综合模块化航电系统··································································.144
10.4 支持四维航迹运行的互联式飞行管理系统·······································.145
12.5 下一代通信导航监视系统····························································.147
12.6 基于空地互联的飞机健康管理系统················································.148
12.7 未来智能驾驶舱········································································.150
12.8 空地互联智慧客舱·····································································.151
12.9 全系统信息管理········································································.152
12.10 新型飞行记录系统····································································.153
12.10.1 可弹射飞行记录器····························································.154
12.10.2 云端飞行记录器·······························································.155
12.11 发展路线图·············································································.156
参考文献··························································································.156
第13 章 先进飞行控制技术·····································································.158
13.1 国内外发展概况········································································.158
13.2 飞控电子设计技术·····································································.159
13.3 主动控制技术···········································································.161
13.4 自主飞行控制技术·····································································.162
13.5 超声速飞行控制技术··································································.163
13.6 智能飞行控制技术·····································································.164
13.7 发展路线图··············································································.166
参考文献··························································································.166
第14 章 未来民用飞机电气化技术····························································.168
14.1 国内外发展概况········································································.168
14.2 高功率密度电源技术··································································.169
14.3 智能配电技术···········································································.172
14.4 大功率燃料电池系统开发与集成技术·············································.173
14.5 电作动技术··············································································.175
14.6 集成与适航验证技术··································································.177
14.7 发展路线图··············································································.178
参考文献··························································································.178
第15 章 先进环境控制技术·····································································.180
15.1 国内外发展概况········································································.180
15.2 机翼电热防除冰系统设计技术······················································.181
15.3 电动引气空调系统设计技术·························································.182
15.4 综合热管理技术········································································.184
15.5 发展路线图··············································································.187
参考文献··························································································.187
第16 章 先进制造技术···········································································.189
16.1 国内外发展概况········································································.190
16.2 热塑性复合材料成型与焊接技术···················································.190
16.3 大曲率纵横加筋壁板整体成型技术················································.191
16.4 被动弹性剪裁机翼蒙皮丝束牵引成型技术·······································.192
16.5 柔性加工、智能装配及智能检验技术·············································.193
16.6 新型材料结构功能一体化成型技术················································.195
16.7 氢燃料飞机结构集成储氢系统设计制造技术····································.196
16.8 增材制造技术···········································································.197
16.9 金属加工及系统总装工艺技术······················································.198
16.10 发展路线图·············································································.200
参考文献··························································································.201
第17 章 先进试飞技术···········································································.204
17.1 国内外发展概况········································································.205
17.2 先进试飞验证平台技术·······························································.205
17.3 虚拟试飞技术···········································································.207
17.4 机载测试技术···········································································.208
17.4.1 监控系统智能化································································.209
17.4.2 数据分析与大数据应用·······················································.209
17.4.3 自动化技术······································································.210
17.4.4 多源信息融合···································································.210
17.4.5 网络化与实时监控·····························································.210
17.4.6 环境适应性······································································.210
17.4.7 高精度传感器的使用··························································.210
17.4.8 人机交互优化···································································.211
17.5 先进遥测技术···········································································.211
17.5.1 高带宽、高速率································································.212
17.5.2 多通道多传感器集成··························································.212
17.5.3 智能数据分析和实时监控····················································.212
17.5.4 远程遥测·········································································.213
17.5.5 数据可视化和虚拟现实·······················································.213
17.6 试飞数据智能化平台技术····························································.213
17.6.1 整合多源数据···································································.214
17.6.2 实时监控和预警································································.214
17.6.3 数据分析与智能决策··························································.215
17.6.4 移动访问和远程访问··························································.215
17.6.5 安全性和数据保护·····························································.215
17.6.6 自动化数据处理································································.215
17.6.7 高效数据采集与整合··························································.215
17.6.8 实时数据分析与决策··························································.216
17.6.9 云计算与大数据分析··························································.216
17.6.10 云端数据分析平台····························································.216
17.7 飞行器自主试飞技术··································································.216
17.8 其他先进试飞技术·····································································.218
17.9 发展路线图··············································································.218
参考文献··························································································.220
第18 章 先进运行支持技术·····································································.221
18.1 国内外发展概况········································································.221
18.2 智能维修技术···········································································.225
18.2.1 移动智能维修技术·····························································.226
18.2.2 预测性维修与智能维修决策技术···········································.226
18.2.3 VR/AR 维修技术·······························································.227
18.3 飞机智能绕机检查技术·······························································.228
18.3.1 无人机绕检技术································································.228
18.3.2 智能机器人绕检技术··························································.229
18.4 智能供应链决策与支持技术·························································.230
18.5 射频识别技术···········································································.231
18.6 供应链管理区块链应用技术·························································.232
18.7 基于机器视觉的仓库过程管控技术················································.232
18.8 客户培训操作行为监控与评估技术················································.233
18.9 发展路线图··············································································.234
参考文献··························································································.235
第19 章 先进动力系统···········································································.236
19.1 宽体客机动力系统·····································································.236
19.1.1 小型高效核心机································································.236
19.1.2 GE9X 发动机····································································.237
19.1.3 UltraFan 发动机·································································.237
19.2 窄体客机动力系统·····································································.238
19.2.1 GTF 发动机······································································.238
19.2.2 开式转子发动机································································.239
19.3 公务机动力系统········································································.240
19.4 新型动力系统···········································································.241
19.4.1 分布式推进系统································································.241
19.4.2 混合动力系统···································································.243
19.5 发展路线图··············································································.247
参考文献··························································································.248
第20 章 绿色能源技术···········································································.250
20.1 SAF ························································································.250
20.1.1 SAF 简介·········································································.250
20.1.2 SAF 战略需求···································································.251
20.1.3 各国政府的政策引导··························································.252
20.1.4 SAF 工艺、产量和认证·······················································.253
20.1.5 SAF 的投资、试验验证和应用··············································.254
20.1.6 启示和建议······································································.256
20.2 氢能技术·················································································.257
20.2.1 氢能技术简介···································································.257
20.2.2 氢能规划·········································································.257
20.2.3 氢燃料电池······································································.258
20.2.4 氢涡轮发动机···································································.259
20.2.5 总结···············································································.260
20.3 发展路线图··············································································.260
参考文献··························································································.261
第4 篇 技术融合
第21 章 5G·························································································.263
21.1 国内外发展概况········································································.264
21.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.265
21.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.266
21.3.1 基于5G 的工业制造模式变革···············································.267
21.3.2 5G 空地互联·····································································.268
21.3.3 5G 赋能飞机产品·······························································.269
21.3.4 5G 赋能飞机设计·······························································.270
21.3.5 5G 赋能飞机制造·······························································.271
21.3.6 5G 赋能飞机试飞·······························································.273
21.3.7 5G 赋能飞机运营·······························································.274
21.4 发展路线图··············································································.275
21.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.276
参考文献··························································································.276
第22 章 人工智能·················································································.277
22.1 国内外发展概况········································································.277
22.1.1 发展历史·········································································.278
22.1.2 技术演进·········································································.279
22.1.3 关键技术的发展································································.280
22.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.282
22.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.283
22.3.1 智能飞行·········································································.283
22.3.2 智能设计·········································································.284
22.3.3 智能制造·········································································.285
22.3.4 智慧服务·········································································.287
22.3.5 智能试飞·········································································.289
22.4 发展路线图··············································································.290
22.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.291
参考文献··························································································.292
第23 章 数字孪生·················································································.293
23.1 国内外发展概况········································································.293
23.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.295
23.2.1 交互性············································································.295
23.2.2 可扩展性·········································································.295
23.2.3 实时性············································································.295
23.2.4 保真性············································································.296
23.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.296
23.3.1 应用场景·········································································.296
23.3.2 应用挑战·········································································.298
23.4 发展路线图··············································································.302
23.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.302
参考文献··························································································.303
第24 章 VR/AR/MR ··············································································.304
24.1 国内外发展概况········································································.304
24.1.1 VR/AR/MR 发展历程··························································.304
24.1.2 VR/AR/MR 技术现状与发展趋势···········································.306
24.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.307
24.2.1 真实感渲染技术································································.307
24.2.2 集群渲染技术···································································.308
24.2.3 自然人机交互技术·····························································.309
24.2.4 与5G 结合·······································································.310
24.2.5 与AI 结合········································································.310
24.2.6 元宇宙技术······································································.311
24.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.311
24.3.1 预研阶段·········································································.312
24.3.2 设计阶段·········································································.313
24.3.3 制造阶段·········································································.313
24.3.4 试飞阶段·········································································.314
24.3.5 市场推广阶段···································································.314
24.3.6 运营阶段·········································································.315
24.4 发展路线图··············································································.315
24.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.316
参考文献··························································································.317
第25 章 区块链····················································································.318
25.1 国内外发展概况········································································.319
25.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.319
25.2.1 技术特征·········································································.319
25.2.2 应用优势·········································································.321
25.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.321
25.3.1 应用场景·········································································.321
25.3.2 应用挑战·········································································.324
25.4 发展路线图··············································································.325
25.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.326
25.5.1 经济性分析······································································.326
25.5.2 环保性分析······································································.327
参考文献··························································································.327
第26 章 石墨烯····················································································.328
26.1 国内外发展概况········································································.328
26.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.330
26.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.331
26.3.1 下一代民用飞机轻质航空电缆··············································.331
26.3.2 新型石墨烯客舱内饰··························································.332
26.3.3 石墨烯高效热管理材料·······················································.333
26.3.4 飞机轻量化用高强高韧石墨烯铝合金·····································.334
26.3.5 石墨烯特种耐磨钢·····························································.334
26.3.6 石墨烯聚四氟乙烯复合材料·················································.335
26.3.7 民用飞机用石墨烯“三防”特种涂料·····································.335
26.3.8 石墨烯柔性传感器·····························································.336
26.4 发展路线图··············································································.336
26.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.337
参考文献··························································································.338
第27 章 超导技术·················································································.339
27.1 国内外发展概况········································································.339
27.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.341
27.2.1 技术特征·········································································.341
27.2.2 应用优势·········································································.341
27.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.342
27.3.1 应用场景·········································································.342
27.3.2 应用挑战·········································································.344
27.4 发展路线图··············································································.345
27.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.346
参考文献··························································································.346
第28 章 量子计算技术···········································································.347
28.1 国内外发展概况········································································.348
28.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.350
28.2.1 技术特征·········································································.350
28.2.2 应用优势·········································································.351
28.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.352
28.3.1 应用场景·········································································.352
28.3.2 应用挑战·········································································.355
28.4 发展路线图··············································································.355
28.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.356
参考文献··························································································.357
第29 章 航空仿生技术···········································································.358
29.1 国内外发展概况········································································.358
29.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.359
29.2.1 结构仿生·········································································.360
29.2.2 功能仿生·········································································.360
29.2.3 材料仿生·········································································.361
29.2.4 力学仿生·········································································.361
29.2.5 控制仿生·········································································.362
29.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.362
29.3.1 结构仿生·········································································.362
29.3.2 功能仿生·········································································.364
29.4 发展路线图··············································································.366
29.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.367
参考文献··························································································.368
第30 章 脑机接口·················································································.369
30.1 国内外发展概况········································································.370
30.1.1 美国发展概况···································································.370
30.1.2 欧盟发展概况···································································.371
30.1.3 日本发展概况···································································.371
30.1.4 中国发展概况···································································.371
30.2 技术特征与应用优势··································································.372
30.2.1 基本原理·········································································.372
30.2.2 信号采集·········································································.372
30.2.3 信号处理·········································································.373
30.2.4 控制设备·········································································.373
30.2.5 反馈环节·········································································.374
30.3 航空领域应用场景与应用挑战······················································.374
30.3.1 飞行仿真控制···································································.374
30.3.2 提升飞行员的训练效能·······················································.374
30.3.3 无人机实时操控································································.375
30.3.4 飞行员大脑认知状态监测····················································.376
30.4 发展路线图··············································································.376
30.5 经济性和环保性分析··································································.377
参考文献··························································································.378
第5 篇 展望
第31 章 未来商用飞机发展的新形势·························································.380
31.1 商用飞机发展的优劣势·······························································.380
31.2 信息革命与能源革命··································································.382
31.2.1 科技创新的核心驱动力·······················································.382
31.2.2 信息革命·········································································.383
31.2.3 能源革命·········································································.385
第32 章 未来航空运输体系发展趋势及产品与技术展望·································.392
32.1 航空运输体系发展趋势·······························································.392
32.1.1 未来航空运输工具将呈现市场差异化、需求个性化、产品多样化的
发展趋势·········································································.393
32.1.2 未来航空运输系统将呈现互联化、精细化、智能化的发展趋势····.393
32.1.3 未来商用飞机将呈现低排放、低噪声、低能耗的发展趋势··········.393
32.1.4 未来航空技术将呈现跨领域、融合创新的发展趋势，以驱动未来航空
产品创新发展···································································.394
32.2 未来产品展望···········································································.394
32.2.1 更加经济高效的未来支线客机··············································.394
32.2.2 智能化、低碳化的未来窄体客机···········································.395
32.2.3 绿色化、高竞争力的未来宽体客机········································.396
32.2.4 更环保、更经济的超声速客机··············································.396
32.2.5 高超声速客机···································································.396
32.2.6 未来货机·········································································.397
32.2.7 未来城市飞行器································································.397
32.3 未来技术展望···········································································.397
32.3.1 新能源············································································.398
32.3.2 新材料/新工艺··································································.398
32.3.3 智能化············································································.398
32.3.4 新构型············································································.399
后记····································································································.401